美国注册会计师协会第38届年会 & CIMA 建设 and 房地产 Conference covered a broad spectrum of topics on accounting, 税, 立法和bet9平台游戏.
人工智能
The speaker at the AI session explained the distinction between deep learning and generative AI: deep learning turns data into information, 而生成式人工智能(ChatGPT)则将知识转化为智慧. Some key pieces of advice from the session on where AI can be implemented in the construction industry included:
- Taking a look at processes that create the most mistakes and have the most redundancy
- 利用人工智能来消费和总结数据
- 而不是自上而下的审查,采取自下而上的审查
- Ultimately, we are moving from what machines can “do for us” to what machines can “be for us.”
劳动力
来自AGC的调查, companies stated that it has been challenging to find candidates for 86% of salaried positions and 88% of craft positions. The impact of this demand causes “wage compression” with two types:
- When the pay rate of an inexperienced hire increases faster than that of an experienced employee. Think of hiring a new person with no experience who will make more than someone who worked for you for several years.
- When you hire experienced personnel, their salary compared to your team upsets the apple cart.
These items are at the forefront of all your hiring decisions.
经济
从经济学的角度来看,一些关键的见解包括:
- Increased cash in circulation coupled with higher interest rates will have a lagging impact on the economy.
- CPI指数已回到历史水平. 然而,库存正升至历史高位.
- 美国办公室空置率为12%.5%, 但在接下来的两年里,随着租约的到期, 这个数字还会上升, 考虑到如今68%的员工希望在家工作.
建造业展望
From a construction perspective, the industry outlook was broken into three segments:
First was 3-5 years, where evidence suggested both bulls and bears have compelling arguments. The amount of forecasted construction spending is at an all-time high. 然而, 虽然历史性的增长确实是积极的, adjusting for inflation reveals that it hasn’t gone up by a lot. 建筑业前景乐观, 但是当你深入到各个部分, 有些是积极的, 有些是负的. Positive segments are transportation, power and highway/street. 消极的是多家庭、商业和住宿.
The second was 7-10 years where the new and old economies will be present, 建设也会随之而来. 城市人口的增加改变了这一动态. 而旧经济则专注于办公室, 银行, 体育/娱乐和购物中心, 城市生活带来了快节奏的生活方式, 以加工食品为特征, 推动大型制药公司和在线采购. Work is increasingly computer-based, requiring computer chips, power and data centers.
The long-term segment is defined as 10-15 years, with a focus on megatrends and their consequences. 大公司会跟着大美元走. 这三个结果是更大、更快和更好.
- Bigger – megaprojects will consume an increasing share of construction spending. The pipeline of mega projects is projected to increase from 10% in 2020 to over 20% by 2023.
- 更快——项目进度将继续压缩. Nonresidential projects over $25M have shortened the timeline over that past decade by 12 months.
- 更好-替代交付将成为正常交付. Industry stakeholders consistently identify the ability to deliver a project in an expiated manner as a main driver of alternative delivery method utilization.
The construction industry will be impacted by technological advancements, 远程和灵活的工作, 电子商贸及数码化, climate change and sustainability and political polarization. 你能想象用人工智能进行内部设计吗? 如果一项工作没有员工,而是由团队来完成呢? Maybe the construction site becomes an assembly site of modular and prefabrication items. How about converting all equipment to electric and monitoring emissions and waste?
这比一张普通的明信片还要长, 但, 说到建筑的未来, 有很多变数需要解开. 我想听听你对此的看法.